The numbers are all a bit strange - but it may - may- just be that the hospitalisations are following the case numbers with the requisite lag. There seems to be a small downturn (too short a period to be certain at the moment though). If the hospitalisation downturn is the case though, that would then seem to make my theory of the diminishing numbers being school kid/people not wanting to be tested anymore incorrect - as if that had been the cause, then the really sick would still have been hospitalised whether tested positive or not - so the hospitalisation numbers should have kept rising.
Is it possible that we hit a herd immunity level and the virus has nowhere to go? Would that cause a rapid drop in cases or a slow petering out? Bet there's lots of scientists looking at their models and wondering why this wasn't predicted.
Irrespective of the case numbers though, I think we have to come to terms with double vaccination being as good as it gets (at the moment - unless something better comes along) - so once the majority have been vaccinated, the country has to go back to as close to normal as it can or else what are we waiting for?
Is it possible that we hit a herd immunity level and the virus has nowhere to go? Would that cause a rapid drop in cases or a slow petering out? Bet there's lots of scientists looking at their models and wondering why this wasn't predicted.
...
Is that when the possibility of more mutations gets worrying ...?
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
...we're <70million people. The world is 7 billion. As they (Whitty/Valance et al - who is al?) kept saying initially, the pandemic is beaten until it's beaten worldwide. Although it's obvious the more cases the more mutations likely, the big concern is importing that mutation isn't it? - as it's vastly more likely that the 6+billion outside the UK will develop nasty variants than the <70 million in the UK.
Edited to add: Perspective. Obviously as well, the UK, to say, Germany is part of the 6+billion where the nasty variant may come from.
Oh yes, I get all that ... what I mean is that once the virus cannot spread because of immunity, does this increase the possibility of mutations, or does this happen randomly?
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
10 day’s off work is ok if you can afford it or you’d have to take it as your holiday.
Some can claim the £500 Test & Trace Support Payment. There are also some employers who have been paying the staff full pay if they have to self isolate.
Yes I know that, the people on benefits or credits get it, the ones one the border line don’t. My son and his wife got 95.00 a week, That doesn’t even cover their rent.
Gardening on the wild, windy west side of Dartmoor.
Oh yes, I get all that ... what I mean is that once the virus cannot spread because of immunity, does this increase the possibility of mutations, or does this happen randomly?
From what I can gather Dove being vaccinated doesn't stop you contracting the disease and also then shedding it - but it lessens both I think I'm right in saying. I also thought all mutations were random mistranslations of genetic data - so I would assume that within a vaccinated group you could still get mutations, but if you weren't as infectious (ie not shedding as much virus) and the recipient was less likely to contract the virus, then the mutation may occur just the same, but not then spread (as easily). But that would also all depend on what the mutation was I would guess.
There's always the possibility that there'll be mutations that the current vaccines are less effective against. Hopefully not, but I don't think it can be ruled out. Combined with waning effectiveness of vaccination over time, I hope there's going to be a programme of regular boosters like we have for flu. Come autumn, will it be a choice between vaccines for children, 2nd vaccines for younger adults or boosters for older and more vulnerable people? I hope we can do all of the above, but I'm not hugely confident given that there's also a need for vaccines for people in less well-off countries to have first and second doses.
Doncaster, South Yorkshire. Soil type: sandy, well-drained
@Lizzie27 that one person was a customer, not wearing a mask as they were in a bar drinking. Bar and restaurant staff here have to wear masks. My home made fabric masks have kept we three safe since the first lockdown and I feel much more secure in them than the flimsy surgical ones which are also adding to a mountain of waste needing recycling or landfill.
I rather think most future mutations will occur, like Delta, in populous, unvaccinated countries and then, like Delta, spread thru travel. Meanwhile, in vaccinated countries, as long as there are enough people resistant to vaccination and wanting to gather in groups without taking sensible precautions there may also be mutations nearer to home.
I have no problem with having booster jabs to stay healthy. We do it with many other vaccines for illnesses usually associated with childhood as well as flu and tetanus. As we get older we have jabs for shingles and pneumonia. Routine stuff.
Vendée - 20kms from Atlantic coast.
"The price good men (and women) pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men (and women)."
But that's the problem with mutations - it's a lottery isn't it? It may occur here with all the vaccinations or it may occur in Ulan Bator or in ...or in......Who knows? There must have already been millions of variants that never spread - so we never knew about them.
Just like human mutations that we see every day, there's obviously a reason behind the mutations in everything (as everything known so far has a cause, and if it doesn't then it's magic), but it hasn't been documented by the scientists yet.
So far about 12,000 mutations of The virus have been found [ likely to be far less than the actual number ]
The vast majority of these are actually harmful to the virus itself.
Mutations are as likely to occur in country A, as they are in country B, but spread is more likely in a less vaccinated country.
the issue of whether any mutation is likely to cause new problems is hotly debated by people far cleverer than me, but at the moment it is thought that it is more likely that dangerous new variants were more likely earlier in the pandemic [ the theory being that it is much easier to break something, than it is to fix it ]
The COVID virus mutates much slower than influenza or HIV.
No idea whether this makes sense, but it is about where we are at the moment.
How can you lie there and think of England When you don't even know who's in the team
Posts
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
My son and his wife got 95.00 a week, That doesn’t even cover their rent.
From what I can gather Dove being vaccinated doesn't stop you contracting the disease and also then shedding it - but it lessens both I think I'm right in saying. I also thought all mutations were random mistranslations of genetic data - so I would assume that within a vaccinated group you could still get mutations, but if you weren't as infectious (ie not shedding as much virus) and the recipient was less likely to contract the virus, then the mutation may occur just the same, but not then spread (as easily). But that would also all depend on what the mutation was I would guess.
I rather think most future mutations will occur, like Delta, in populous, unvaccinated countries and then, like Delta, spread thru travel. Meanwhile, in vaccinated countries, as long as there are enough people resistant to vaccination and wanting to gather in groups without taking sensible precautions there may also be mutations nearer to home.
I have no problem with having booster jabs to stay healthy. We do it with many other vaccines for illnesses usually associated with childhood as well as flu and tetanus. As we get older we have jabs for shingles and pneumonia. Routine stuff.
The vast majority of these are actually harmful to the virus itself.
Mutations are as likely to occur in country A, as they are in country B, but spread is more likely in a less vaccinated country.
the issue of whether any mutation is likely to cause new problems is hotly debated by people far cleverer than me, but at the moment it is thought that it is more likely that dangerous new variants were more likely earlier in the pandemic [ the theory being that it is much easier to break something, than it is to fix it ]
The COVID virus mutates much slower than influenza or HIV.
No idea whether this makes sense, but it is about where we are at the moment.
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border