In case you're interested, expanation from Metcheck (Metcheck.com) as to why the weather models are not very good at forecasting rain at the moment. "when we forecast showers and thunderstorms after such a lengthy dry period then there are a few other factors we have to consider. The first is that the top soil is so dry at the moment that the rain falling on it will initially be like falling on concrete and this will increase the potential for run off. The second is that 'normally' the soil acts like a big sponge and when the sun heats the land we see this moisture evaporate and turns into clouds which turns into rain (given the right conditions). But when the soil is so dry this feedback mechanism becomes somewhat muted. It's why when we have a wet period, it is far easier for the weather to remain wet thanks to the additional boundary and canopy water moisture which is available. When the boundary layer is bone dry, the moisture deficit makes it that much harder for available moisture to develop into clouds and subsequently rain."
The weather models don't automatically compensate for unusual boundary conditions (such as very dry soils), it relies on the forecasters making that judgement and these days, the forecasters seem a little out of their depth on making these calls. The apps are reporting the models, the models have poor input assumptions so the forecasts are wrong. Essentially, where it hasn't been raining, it probably won't rain much until a tropical storm arrives and brings marine moisture in.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
OH just called out ‘It’s raining!’ … no it isn’t … about three drops rippling the birdbath and then nothing isn’t rain … it’s not even drizzle … the washing is still on the line … steaming dry … 🙄
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
Lovely bit of consistent light rain here. I woke up to bird song and petrichor. The water butts went up by enough to fill a few watering cans and everything looks cleaner and fresher. Hopefully we'll get a bit more tomorrow.
If you can keep your head, while those around you are losing theirs, you may not have grasped the seriousness of the situation.
Many years ago I was explaining to a male customer in the flower shop why the water in a vase of flowers goes smelly in warm weather and why it needs to be changed regularly because the orgasm botrytis causes the stems to rot. He burst out laughing but the worrying thing was that I didn't turn a hair or even blush.
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"when we forecast showers and thunderstorms after such a lengthy dry period then there are a few other factors we have to consider.
The first is that the top soil is so dry at the moment that the rain falling on it will initially be like falling on concrete and this will increase the potential for run off.
The second is that 'normally' the soil acts like a big sponge and when the sun heats the land we see this moisture evaporate and turns into clouds which turns into rain (given the right conditions).
But when the soil is so dry this feedback mechanism becomes somewhat muted. It's why when we have a wet period, it is far easier for the weather to remain wet thanks to the additional boundary and canopy water moisture which is available.
When the boundary layer is bone dry, the moisture deficit makes it that much harder for available moisture to develop into clouds and subsequently rain."
The weather models don't automatically compensate for unusual boundary conditions (such as very dry soils), it relies on the forecasters making that judgement and these days, the forecasters seem a little out of their depth on making these calls. The apps are reporting the models, the models have poor input assumptions so the forecasts are wrong. Essentially, where it hasn't been raining, it probably won't rain much until a tropical storm arrives and brings marine moisture in.
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
It's definitely raining here now. Stair-rods. The dog's hiding under the desk because the thunder is quite close
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
On a Farmers Weekly programme on the radio some years ago, on planting up your fields ...
‘The secret of a good lay is a firm bottom’
He burst out laughing but the worrying thing was that I didn't turn a hair or even blush.