I think what Steve is saying is that the statistics are skewed so that the probablility of dying from the virus looks much higher than reality. This is because the death rate is given as a percent of confirmed cases rather than a percent of estimated or actual infection rates due to the assumption that many cases are going unconfirmed. In theory this means that the death rate will be much lower than the worst case estimates by total population level.
As you say though currently confirmed cases are being treated at the ICUs and are still dying but soon there will be no ICU capacity left. Hence why governments are asking gang members to be nice to each other for a while so we don't have to waste bed spaces on stab and gunshot victims.
If you can keep your head, while those around you are losing theirs, you may not have grasped the seriousness of the situation.
I agree that if predictions go where they may go ( and no one has enough data to know yet), then loads - hundreds of thousands will potentially die. BUT still, 600,000 (1% of the population) die each year anyway and you (people min general) don't worry about that. Never once in my life I have ever worried about flu (not quite true - I was paranoid about colds and flu when my wife was on chemo) - but what?, 17,000 people die of that each year? Death is never nice, it's never the 'right time' - but all you can do is take the precautions being put forward - and try to keep the 4000+ (and hopefully growing) beds as under utilised (if that's possible) as possible.
Yesterday on BBC Radio four inside health 15.30, the head of ICU said that the capacity could be doubled and at a very big stretch quadrupled although not ideal, the way that they would do this is that every operating theatre has two respirators and although these aren't the same as used in ICU's they were adequate in these circumstances, wards would be used and they are being assessed to see how many oxygen points they have, ICU nurses would be in charge of teams of nurses untrained in Intensive care. The surprising point was that Scotland only has 400 ICU places.
Only just catching up here - traumatised over having to get up at 6.20 am this morning to go to Sainsbury's 'silver oldies shopping hour'. Absolutely rammed with pensioners with trolley's full. We're relieved though that we've got enough food now to get us through another week or so - we have no-one yet to do our shopping for us. You're right @Allotment Boy, it is light at 6 am in the morning - never realized that as we don't usually wake up till eight ish!
@Punkdoc, I realise the masks are not medical grade, they are P3 ones (whatever that means) and the ones the NHS A & E consultant mentioned he'd bought at Screwfix so t good enough for me. We are in a bit of a dilemma over going to the newsagent but we subscribed (very expensively) only last month and he doesn't deliver - hence the masks. We like reading our newspaper and would miss it very much if we couldn't get it, it's not the same reading it online although it may have to come to that. I am trying to think of someone who could collect it for us. Thanks for all your very sane and necessary comments, it's good to have you onboard.
Scotland's population is about a tenth(5.4 m) of England's (55million) so 400 beds is the same ratio. Hopefully our wide open spaces will help in the containment of the virus in Scotland.
'Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement' - Helen Keller
The difference between the two poster pictures is the shadow of the house. The sun's position make the shadow impossible in the first picture which has been corrected in the second one. I don't know if it was accidental or deliberate - but we need some puzzles/riddles etc to lighten the gloom, perhaps.
Congratulations for the first correct answer you win a year's supply of toilet roll
If you can keep your head, while those around you are losing theirs, you may not have grasped the seriousness of the situation.
It’s an ill wind ... we have been doing a sort-of meals-on-wheels service for an elderly, recently widowed, physically impaired friend. Every time a meal was cooked, two extra ones were prepared: one for Margaret and one for the freezer.
Rammed and disordered, I spent some time yesterday defrosting it and organising it. To my delight we’re self sufficient in meals for nearly eight weeks. Or we would be self sufficient but for pesky things like milk and wine.
Can never have enough wine or milk. Fortunately we've just stocked up with both - enough for a week anyway. We also added chocolate and sticky cakes to cheer us up.
@punkdoc and @steveTu .... I think the thing is you both have, of necessity, different viewpoints ...
Steve, you and I and a lot of the rest of us will do best if we follow all instructions, take all precautions, but adopt a rather phlegmatic attitude ... some folk are going to die, some of them may be us but there's nothing to be gained by running around like headless chickens ... we just have to make the best of it.
Punkdoc is in a very different situation ... his entire career has been about saving lives ... as he says he has been in the position of making those life or death decisions, and even now (although his own health is severely compromised) he is advising those in charge how best to decide criteria of who will be prioritised when the doctors are faced with increasingly finite resources. A hellish position to be in and I for one am extremely grateful that there are folk willing to advise a seemingly inept government. Lord knows what'd happen if they were left to themselves to decide ... look what they've done to the NHS so far 😡
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
Posts
Only just catching up here - traumatised over having to get up at 6.20 am this morning to go to Sainsbury's 'silver oldies shopping hour'. Absolutely rammed with pensioners with trolley's full. We're relieved though that we've got enough food now to get us through another week or so - we have no-one yet to do our shopping for us. You're right @Allotment Boy, it is light at 6 am in the morning - never realized that as we don't usually wake up till eight ish!
@Punkdoc, I realise the masks are not medical grade, they are P3 ones (whatever that means) and the ones the NHS A & E consultant mentioned he'd bought at Screwfix so t good enough for me. We are in a bit of a dilemma over going to the newsagent but we subscribed (very expensively) only last month and he doesn't deliver - hence the masks. We like reading our newspaper and would miss it very much if we couldn't get it, it's not the same reading it online although it may have to come to that. I am trying to think of someone who could collect it for us. Thanks for all your very sane and necessary comments, it's good to have you onboard.
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border
Rammed and disordered, I spent some time yesterday defrosting it and organising it. To my delight we’re self sufficient in meals for nearly eight weeks. Or we would be self sufficient but for pesky things like milk and wine.
That's good @BenCotto.
Can never have enough wine or milk. Fortunately we've just stocked up with both - enough for a week anyway. We also added chocolate and sticky cakes to cheer us up.
Steve, you and I and a lot of the rest of us will do best if we follow all instructions, take all precautions, but adopt a rather phlegmatic attitude ... some folk are going to die, some of them may be us but there's nothing to be gained by running around like headless chickens ... we just have to make the best of it.
Punkdoc is in a very different situation ... his entire career has been about saving lives ... as he says he has been in the position of making those life or death decisions, and even now (although his own health is severely compromised) he is advising those in charge how best to decide criteria of who will be prioritised when the doctors are faced with increasingly finite resources. A hellish position to be in and I for one am extremely grateful that there are folk willing to advise a seemingly inept government. Lord knows what'd happen if they were left to themselves to decide ... look what they've done to the NHS so far 😡
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.