Isn't this flawed? The metric says that lateral flow tests (positive) are included, unless followed by a negative PCR and also if they're not followed in 72 hours by a -ve PCR. But if you don't have to have a PCR following a positive lateral flow now, doesn't this go back to what I said? IE the numbers artificially shrink - not due to less virus, but because the data collection isn't happening.
'...
COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and
testing them for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If the test is positive this is
referred to as a case. Some positive rapid lateral flow test results are
confirmed with lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken
within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are no
longer reported as confirmed cases.
If a person has more than one positive test, they are only counted as
one case for all nations with the exception of Wales.
Cases data includes all positive lab-confirmed polymerase chain reaction
(PCR) test results plus
in England, positive rapid lateral flow tests that are not followed by a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours
in Northern Ireland, positive rapid lateral flow tests
Figures may be shown by:
date reported – the date it was first included in the published totals
specimen date – the date the sample was taken from a patient
Data for the last 5 days by specimen date are considered incomplete
as it takes time for tests to have an outcome and be recorded on
relevant lab systems.
...'
Who then forces people to enter positive laterflow tests anywhere? How is that controlled?
I'm as confused as you on this @steveTu. Hospital admissions and deaths rising. But there is definitely an air of now 'living with this virus, the virus will never go away but it will be more like the common cold or flu'. More than one scientist has said, fatalistically, that we will all contract it at some point and I suppose given that inevitability it doesn't make sense to keep restrictions in place for much longer. And I suppose that it has been decided that hospitals at full stretch, operations cancelled and extraordinary long waiting lists is a price worth paying to enable to the economy to get back to normal. Reducing the isolation time whilst cutting back on testing go hand in hand. Release all of those isolating at home back into the workplace but discontinue testing so we don't know the effect means there are no scary infection no.s being reported each day. I wonder how long before they stop reporting the hospital admissions and death rates? The no.s of people dying now, whether with or from Covid seem to be less important now than they were last year. That's what I can't get my head around.
@didyw and @steveTu .... This morning's Radio 4 prog 'More or Less' gave a very helpful explanation of what those statistics mean .... worth 'Listening Again'
I listened to that in the background so may have missed something. But it's not the death stats I don't understand, it's the cases. How can you now tell how many cases there are, when the source of that data (ie the PCR test positive or negative) are no longer being forced?
As for that radio prog and the death stats - I follow that the more cases there are, the more likely that the death with 28 days stat is likely to be affected. But that (AFAIK) has been true since day 1 and exacerbated by vaccination rollout. IE more people test positive with less symptoms and less likelihood of death - but then die of something else and thereby skew the death within 28 days stat. Fine. But the gov caters for that on their website by publishing BOTH the deaths within 28 days and also deaths with Covid on their death certificate.
You're missing the point @steveTu 1. Boris is in some serious political trouble with his own party 2. His party don't like Covid restrictions 3. He needs therefore to lift the restrictions in order to appease his critics 4. He wants the numbers to justify that easement 5. So he's cheating
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
I would like that to be true to reinforce my 'in G_d's name go' Boris hatred (overstated for effect - but the main is not fit to be PM - no one is fit to be PM if they think lying is the way) bubble, but the scientists all seem to be talking down the current state as well (with caveats). Even the BBC last night said the numbers were coming down, when the figures they'd quoted from the Gov showed the numbers increasing again for the last three days - although the overall trend has been down. No one mentions though that the stats collection has (as far as I can tell) changed since this time last week by dint of the 'no PCR following a positive lateral flow' rule change.
Some journalist will ask the question I'm sure ... and we'll get '...waffle,waffle...bang on desk....but you're forgetting the best vaccine roll out since vaccine roll outs were invented....' - ie the standard gov response to any question.
'What do you think of the situation in Tonga?'
'Well, Tonga is dreadful and we commiserate with the people suffering, but we have the best vaccine roll out since ... well since time began...'
'What about Putin and Ukraine?'
'Obviously, that's of concern, but it's lucky here that we had the best vaccine roll out or else half our Army wouldn't be available...'
.... ad infinitum and beyond.... (as Luke Skywalker often said)...
@steveTu, I think you're over-thinking things and need to get out a bit more!
We've been mixing since before Xmas and we've been fine so far although I fully expect to catch Covid at some time and will face that if and when it happens. The signs are that the pandemic is slowing (at least in this country) and as announced this afternoon most restrictions are ending next Thursday and people can go back to work as from tomorrow. Masks in schools are cancelled as from tomorrow which is excellent news, that never made sense. Most people will hopefully use their common sense and wear masks/social distance if they feel it necessary.
A lot of transmission happens in schools most peple I know who have had covid have contact with school or college age children. Masks in schools made eminent sense to me. Still does.
I believe the most accurate data - which is independent of the whole LFT/PCR testing regime thing - is the ONS survey. The latest one does show a sharp but small drop in the case rate: Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) This I think is why the scientists are talking hopefully about the peak having passed. What I don't know is whether the scientists were as enthusiastic about lifting restrictions now.
The rate is still 5.5% of the population which is more than double what the rate was when the present restrictions - now being abandoned - were introduced. This is why I am cynical about Boris's motives in ending restrictions now. Yes it's better than it was last week. It is not good.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Posts
COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and testing them for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If the test is positive this is referred to as a case. Some positive rapid lateral flow test results are confirmed with lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are no longer reported as confirmed cases. If a person has more than one positive test, they are only counted as one case for all nations with the exception of Wales. Cases data includes all positive lab-confirmed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results plus
Figures may be shown by:
date reported – the date it was first included in the published totals
specimen date – the date the sample was taken from a patient
Data for the last 5 days by specimen date are considered incomplete as it takes time for tests to have an outcome and be recorded on relevant lab systems.
...'
Who then forces people to enter positive laterflow tests anywhere? How is that controlled?
More than one scientist has said, fatalistically, that we will all contract it at some point and I suppose given that inevitability it doesn't make sense to keep restrictions in place for much longer. And I suppose that it has been decided that hospitals at full stretch, operations cancelled and extraordinary long waiting lists is a price worth paying to enable to the economy to get back to normal.
Reducing the isolation time whilst cutting back on testing go hand in hand. Release all of those isolating at home back into the workplace but discontinue testing so we don't know the effect means there are no scary infection no.s being reported each day. I wonder how long before they stop reporting the hospital admissions and death rates?
The no.s of people dying now, whether with or from Covid seem to be less important now than they were last year. That's what I can't get my head around.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd
Got to love the BBC
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
1. Boris is in some serious political trouble with his own party
2. His party don't like Covid restrictions
3. He needs therefore to lift the restrictions in order to appease his critics
4. He wants the numbers to justify that easement
5. So he's cheating
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
We've been mixing since before Xmas and we've been fine so far although I fully expect to catch Covid at some time and will face that if and when it happens.
The signs are that the pandemic is slowing (at least in this country) and as announced this afternoon most restrictions are ending next Thursday and people can go back to work as from tomorrow. Masks in schools are cancelled as from tomorrow which is excellent news, that never made sense.
Most people will hopefully use their common sense and wear masks/social distance if they feel it necessary.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
This I think is why the scientists are talking hopefully about the peak having passed. What I don't know is whether the scientists were as enthusiastic about lifting restrictions now.
The rate is still 5.5% of the population which is more than double what the rate was when the present restrictions - now being abandoned - were introduced.
This is why I am cynical about Boris's motives in ending restrictions now. Yes it's better than it was last week. It is not good.
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”