Some facts to keep in mind whilst you listen to the conference. Hopefully you take comfort from these, and the world is not ending as some reporting would have us believe.
UK confirmed cases have passed 1 million, however the true number of cases is significantly higher as a quantity of people are asymptomatic or choose not to get a test (wrong self-diagnosis, personal choice etc). This is good in terms of risk.
It means UK deaths are therefore likely to be below 2% of cases, which mirrors the calculated mortality rate. Deaths are a "known quantity".
The average age of death "due to" the virus is 82. The usual average life expectancy in the UK is 81.
The virus is not in the top 10 leading causes of death in September 2020. Alzheimer's, cancers and other causes remain the leading cause of death.
The UK "deaths due to the virus" statistic does not follow the WHO recommendation. The headline statistics include anyone who dies and had a positive test in the last 28 days. It's therefore likely that the true mortality rate is lower than reported.
Note that the alternate excess deaths measure is also impacted by the NHS focus on the virus, and people's fear-driven behaviors (I don't want to risk going to the doctor even though my chest hurts).
Therefore, overall, harm from the virus is less risky than you may perceive. This is especially true if you are in the lower risk groups (under 60 etc), which of course many people in this forum are not (for those reading comments in threads, remember that this group self-selects: a 50 to 70 year old is more likely to be present than a 10 to 30 year old). This is further true if you take some basic actions or controls to reduce your individual risk further, such as not entering a crowded venue.
A lockdown will simply delay the problem further, as we've seen now. A vaccine will have some efficacy, but it will be a significant time before it's generally accessible. The human race has only ever eradicated once virus (smallpox).
So, as difficult as it may seem, we will need to get on with our lives whilst the pandemic subsides over the next couple of years. Hopefully the facts give comfort that the risk of harm is not as high as you may perceive it to be, and remember that humans are innately bad at correctly assessing risk.
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Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
Jesus..
See the WUM is back😕
Some of you really need to look in the mirror and realise you're not as perfect, self righteous and holier-than thou as you seem to think you are.
Enjoy your insignificant little gardening forum..
I'm out.
UK confirmed cases have passed 1 million, however the true number of cases is significantly higher as a quantity of people are asymptomatic or choose not to get a test (wrong self-diagnosis, personal choice etc). This is good in terms of risk.
It means UK deaths are therefore likely to be below 2% of cases, which mirrors the calculated mortality rate. Deaths are a "known quantity".
The average age of death "due to" the virus is 82. The usual average life expectancy in the UK is 81.
The virus is not in the top 10 leading causes of death in September 2020. Alzheimer's, cancers and other causes remain the leading cause of death.
The UK "deaths due to the virus" statistic does not follow the WHO recommendation. The headline statistics include anyone who dies and had a positive test in the last 28 days. It's therefore likely that the true mortality rate is lower than reported.
Note that the alternate excess deaths measure is also impacted by the NHS focus on the virus, and people's fear-driven behaviors (I don't want to risk going to the doctor even though my chest hurts).
Therefore, overall, harm from the virus is less risky than you may perceive. This is especially true if you are in the lower risk groups (under 60 etc), which of course many people in this forum are not (for those reading comments in threads, remember that this group self-selects: a 50 to 70 year old is more likely to be present than a 10 to 30 year old). This is further true if you take some basic actions or controls to reduce your individual risk further, such as not entering a crowded venue.
A lockdown will simply delay the problem further, as we've seen now. A vaccine will have some efficacy, but it will be a significant time before it's generally accessible. The human race has only ever eradicated once virus (smallpox).
So, as difficult as it may seem, we will need to get on with our lives whilst the pandemic subsides over the next couple of years. Hopefully the facts give comfort that the risk of harm is not as high as you may perceive it to be, and remember that humans are innately bad at correctly assessing risk.