I have a serious (and hopefully non-provocative) question about NHS capacity.
If we are to avoid lockdowns/restrictions being introduced every winter going forward, in order to stop hospitals being overwhelmed, then we need to do something about NHS capacity. We could have started doing something about that in March 2019 (and maybe we did?). How long would it take for those planning actions to translate into a real increase in capacity, such that a surge in winter illnesses doesn’t always lead to a crisis?
And what would we need to create? It can’t just be extra beds, because otherwise the Nightingale hospitals would still be open. So is it extra medical staff that’s needed? And if so, how do we get that? Train more medics and nurses? That sounds like something with at least a 7 year horizon.
So, genuine question, what is needed? More money, obviously, but how would that money be spent, and how soon would we start to feel the benefits?
This event takes place 15 Dec 2021 - 3 Jan 2022 near me. How it isn't a disease soup is beyond me: a drunken, singing, dress up, cheering, yelling three week party. God knows the venue needs the money and the event is terrific fun, by all accounts - not that much to do with darts - but does it really make any sense? Now?
People say, "well, hospital numbers aren't that high at the moment."
🤦🏻♀️
Well, this event is in full swing now - the super spreader event that you would expect it to be. In the middle of our community - filling local public transport. And we have two weeks of it left. Yeay.
"Public health experts have warned the event was
“Covid spreаding on steroids”... Prof
Keith Neаl, а public heаlth expert аt the University of Nottinghаm,
said the championship – which is expected to draw in 80,000 fans –
should not have gone ahead with fans in attendance. “There is no concept
of social distancing and they will not be wearing masks because they
are drinking,” he said."
Frankly, stepping up Nightingale type facilities, or building extra wards at existing hospitals, is the easier bit. The workforce issues are, as you point out, the harder nut to crack. Training new clinical staff is both costly and has a lengthy time horizon.
A key issue in all of this is social care. As a country we need to properly plan for and deliver high quality social care services which enable people to live in their own home for longer, if that is their wish, or be cared for in a residential/nursing home setting. This would free up a considerable volume of hospital beds and staff .... and be better for the individual. Nobody should be trapped in a hospital ward because the care they need in a community setting can't be found.
Unfortunately, successive governments, of all colours, have put the issue of social care into the "too difficult" tray for as long as I can remember.
So, not any easy solutions, but at least we should be trying. It will mean higher taxes ... I, for one, would be willing to pay.
Bee x
Gardener and beekeeper in beautiful Scottish Borders
A single bee creates just one twelfth of a teaspoon of honey in her lifetime
So if we could stop beds being occupied by people who could be cared for (with support) at home, or in care homes, then our current NHS capacity would suffice? If so, then a small hike in National Insurance seems a very small price to pay.
I wonder why the politicians don’t message it like that? All I hear is that the NI increase is an extra tax to stop people losing any equity they have built up in their homes. Or maybe thats all the media want us to hear on messaging.
I think the problem is the governments are only interested in short term quick fix solutions.theyre not going to be in power years from now.well,their party might be but they personally won't be.so they don't care.the politicians are in it for themselves and their mates in business.now I'm in power how much money can I make ?hence Matt wancock giving out contracts to his mate in the pub and sister. perhaps we shouldve gone into covid on a war footing.get all political parties to work together.not leave one chump in charge who just wanted to be world king then go off and have another baby.or two.or seven..
I wouldn't go as far as to say that sorting out social care would provide sufficient NHS capacity to cope. BUT it would be a huge help, and maybe buy some breathing space to build up the level of clinical staff to meet current demands - both in hospitals and in primary care.
The thing is, we expect so much of the NHS - shorter waiting lists, and better access to our GPs being just 2 examples. The latest drugs and the newest treatments may actually help us here. I can remember when patients having a cardiac pacemaker fitted would be in hospital for over a week. The pacemakers were the size of a mobile phone. Now they are tiny and can be fitted in a day.
Sometimes just throwing money at an issue isn't always the long term answer. It helps of course, but identifying how the NHS can work smarter is just as important. So a healthy R&D budget is vital.
In the really long term properly resourcing public health is the thing we need to do ..... but that's a whole other debate.
Bee x
Gardener and beekeeper in beautiful Scottish Borders
A single bee creates just one twelfth of a teaspoon of honey in her lifetime
And then there's bed blocking ... all those folk that no longer need treatment but are too frail to go home yet because there's no one there to care for them, everyone is at work ... there used to be a fair percentage of women who only worked part time if at all ... but now most women tend to work full time so who's going to take care of the newly discharged patients? After all, there's no such thing as convaslescent homes and cottage hospitals any more ... they were closed to save money ... or even to make money ... many have been sold off for housing ...
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
Posts
If we are to avoid lockdowns/restrictions being introduced every winter going forward, in order to stop hospitals being overwhelmed, then we need to do something about NHS capacity. We could have started doing something about that in March 2019 (and maybe we did?). How long would it take for those planning actions to translate into a real increase in capacity, such that a surge in winter illnesses doesn’t always lead to a crisis?
And what would we need to create? It can’t just be extra beds, because otherwise the Nightingale hospitals would still be open. So is it extra medical staff that’s needed? And if so, how do we get that? Train more medics and nurses? That sounds like something with at least a 7 year horizon.
So, genuine question, what is needed? More money, obviously, but how would that money be spent, and how soon would we start to feel the benefits?
Frankly, stepping up Nightingale type facilities, or building extra wards at existing hospitals, is the easier bit.
The workforce issues are, as you point out, the harder nut to crack.
Training new clinical staff is both costly and has a lengthy time horizon.
A key issue in all of this is social care.
As a country we need to properly plan for and deliver high quality social care services which enable people to live in their own home for longer, if that is their wish, or be cared for in a residential/nursing home setting.
This would free up a considerable volume of hospital beds and staff .... and be better for the individual. Nobody should be trapped in a hospital ward because the care they need in a community setting can't be found.
Unfortunately, successive governments, of all colours, have put the issue of social care into the "too difficult" tray for as long as I can remember.
So, not any easy solutions, but at least we should be trying.
It will mean higher taxes ... I, for one, would be willing to pay.
Bee x
A single bee creates just one twelfth of a teaspoon of honey in her lifetime
So if we could stop beds being occupied by people who could be cared for (with support) at home, or in care homes, then our current NHS capacity would suffice? If so, then a small hike in National Insurance seems a very small price to pay.
I wonder why the politicians don’t message it like that? All I hear is that the NI increase is an extra tax to stop people losing any equity they have built up in their homes. Or maybe thats all the media want us to hear on messaging.
perhaps we shouldve gone into covid on a war footing.get all political parties to work together.not leave one chump in charge who just wanted to be world king then go off and have another baby.or two.or seven..
I wouldn't go as far as to say that sorting out social care would provide sufficient NHS capacity to cope. BUT it would be a huge help, and maybe buy some breathing space to build up the level of clinical staff to meet current demands - both in hospitals and in primary care.
The thing is, we expect so much of the NHS - shorter waiting lists, and better access to our GPs being just 2 examples.
The latest drugs and the newest treatments may actually help us here.
I can remember when patients having a cardiac pacemaker fitted would be in hospital for over a week. The pacemakers were the size of a mobile phone. Now they are tiny and can be fitted in a day.
Sometimes just throwing money at an issue isn't always the long term answer.
It helps of course, but identifying how the NHS can work smarter is just as important. So a healthy R&D budget is vital.
In the really long term properly resourcing public health is the thing we need to do ..... but that's a whole other debate.
Bee x
A single bee creates just one twelfth of a teaspoon of honey in her lifetime
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.