@steveTu Most people aren't testing if they have symptoms and many who do have Covid are asymptomatic. The daily "case rate" data doesn't show case rates, it only shows the number of positive tests. And there is a time lag while the data is compiled.
The government figures are from confirmed cases based on test data, which is fair enough. The Zoe covid app uses data from people reporting in, which they then extrapolate to an approximate figure for the whole country. Given that a lot of infection (symptoms) is not confirmed by pcr tests especially now vaccination means many infections are mild and never get reported to govt. They and others are certain the daily figures as reported in the media are, as @punkdoc alluded to, a considerable underestimate of the true levels of infection.
I'm aware of the 'hidden' cases and that the Gov site only shows 'tested' cases - that was 'true' with all the variants so far. People will only get tested if they have a need - ie symptoms or maybe contact with an infected person.
The predicted/modelled numbers vary wildly - punkdoc says 100,000 - allotment boy says an additional 20k (not sure over what period) has occurred - Sky reports that UKHSA says there were 200,000 cases - the Gov says circa 5,000 confirmed cases. Zoe shows a completely different figure for overall infection rates (all variants).
Irrespective - as of yet - I haven't seen a sharp increase in the numbers on the Gov site (ie tested cases) - although this week may start to reflect Omicron causing more tests. And from my perspective (maybe again incorrect!), I thought I saw the links (in the past with the other variants) and flow between tested cases/ hospitalisations and deaths. Presumably, by Christmas if Omicron is then dominant, we'll see the same/similar link for omicron - ie tested cases to hospitalisations to deaths.
Reports from SA were that symptoms are not classic Covid symptoms. People had it, felt a bit unwell, but because they didn't have a cough or lack of taste/smell, were not testing for Covid so they didn't realise it was there until they began looking for it. The same may well be true here and lots of people who think they've had a bad cold have actually had omicron, if (speculating here) the LFTs aren't reliably picking it up for some reason
Anecdotally, among the people I am working with (mostly in London), case numbers have suddenly and dramatically jumped in the last week
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Son says that from his experience running testing centres, it seems that the first symptoms may be a shocking migraine-type headache and a really snotty nose ... then the other symptoms kick in.
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
Most of our local schools are now full of it. Classes are finishing for the year. Our community covid support group is suddenly full of very ill people again, isolating, kids off. Some only found out they had covid because they were doing regular LFTs for work. School plays and parties cancelled.
Doctors and covid scientists can tell when there is a big wave coming. They are paying close attention to the patterning. I don't really understand why there is such suspicion of the wave warnings. Some people seem to prefer to have their fingers in their ears.
Posts
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border
Reports from SA were that symptoms are not classic Covid symptoms. People had it, felt a bit unwell, but because they didn't have a cough or lack of taste/smell, were not testing for Covid so they didn't realise it was there until they began looking for it. The same may well be true here and lots of people who think they've had a bad cold have actually had omicron, if (speculating here) the LFTs aren't reliably picking it up for some reason
Anecdotally, among the people I am working with (mostly in London), case numbers have suddenly and dramatically jumped in the last week
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.