I don’t wear a mask I wear a badge to say I am exempt and nobody has ever challenged me or been unpleasant and I live in a busy suburban area and use public transport regularly so I think most people will just live and let live. Even if I forget my badge I have no issues.
If after 19th I see someone wearing a mask correctly I will endeavour to keep my distance to avoid upsetting them. All the people , that’s most of them round here, who wear the mask under their nose, I will just treat as normal. They are obviously not worried.
But isn't 'now' - the word - the issue? A bit like Hancocks' would as in '... hospital patients released to care homes would be tested...' - 'now' can mean multiple things. I thought from last night that Whitty's 'now' was summer rather than autumn and not down to a specific date. Boris - who said the he wouldn't be led by the dates, takes 'now' as a specific date - the date that he set and doesn't want to miss. Therein lies the difference doesn't it?
I have absolutely no issue with the easing of lockdown measures if that is what the scientific advice is. Boris then should simply have said last night '...we're easing the lockdown on the 19th still, because that is what the science says (and here's taht recommendation from SAGE) and the reasoning behind that is...lower death rate,lower hospitalisation...blah...blah...' - NOT - '...if not now then when?...'.
We have to come out of lockdown at some point - and the sooner the better - and If Covid (in this country) has been reduced, by virtue of the vaccines and the number of people with antibodies, to be no worse than flu, then fine - but show the science and justify the easing date on that science.
Prof Ferguson said (I think, but I'm paraphrasing) that the extra 4 weeks from June 21st to July 19th had a significant impact on the modelling because it allowed time to get all over 40s double vaccinated. Extending it beyond that point has a rapidly diminishing benefit and, at least statistically, a far smaller impact on the outcomes as far as hospitalisations and deaths are concerned (99% of the people who have died so far being over 40). Waiting until the entire adult population is double vaccinated, which would be the next key data point, would move us into September, past the school holidays, which seems like a poor choice for the reasons stated before. So the specific date comes from the time taken to get the extra vaccines done and coincides with the start of the school holidays entirely deliberately. The data supports the date in this specific instance. (I'm not saying I go along with all this, I'm just trying to summarise what he said)
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
I think easing of restrictions on socialising, events etc has to come at some point, and no-one has to attend big events if they don't want to, although there might be difficult issues around protecting people who work in entertainment/hospitality industries. But continuing with good hygiene mask-wearing and keeping your distance where possible in enclosed public places such as shops and public transport is, to me, a no-brainer. It's not that hard to wash/sanitise your hands often, wear your mask or face screen thingy in the supermarket etc (exempt people excepted) and not to crowd other people in your haste to grab stuff off the shelves. It'd reduce the spread of colds, flu etc as well.
Doncaster, South Yorkshire. Soil type: sandy, well-drained
It must be me as I thought PV was saying last night that the data wouldn't be available til the end of this week. So I didn't follow how the scientific advice (which presumably is data based) could have been given yet.
My little local Tesco Express and the nearby metro allow people with no masks,no lanyard. Went to nearest town, Saturday,as you enter the mall,you are meant to be masked. A huge amount of 20s,30s without masks
Have reported plenty of their staff for having a mask round their chins while chatting to other colleagues,even escalated to Head Office,nothing happened,not even an automated message. Hubby recons they will say,yes they WERE wearing a Face covering,all be it NOT around their mouth and nose. You cannot lock down the country for ever, because of mental health,the economy, peoples lively hood,all the people dying of other things while awaiting hospital treatment
@steveTu there's probably a difference between PV who is looking for information about what has happened and PF who is forecasting what is going to happen next. PV would say that what PF does isn't 'data' - which is true. PF presumably amends his forecasts based on data as trends change, but doesn't need all of it to formulate his predictions
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
What's the current backlog situation in the NHS? Have all of those needing cancer and other life-saving operations now been treated? How will the expected huge rise in new covid hospital admissions affect those still waiting for surgery? I think we all know the answers to these questions.
A trowel in the hand is worth a thousand lost under a bush.
I don't mean to bang on - but again listening to Radio 4 this morning I heard Sajid Javid (is he Uncle Fester in disguise?) talk about mask wearing and he said (and I paraphrase) that he would decide on whether he would wear a mask depending on the circumstance. So if he was in a crowded room he would, but if he were on an empty train at 3am in the morning, he wouldn't. Sounds reasonable and fine eh?
Then on WATO Prof Mickey (? I think that was here name), who is part of the advisory group SAGE, was talking about the spread of Covid and said is was aerosol based (which I think we all knew) and that those aerosols could hang around in the air for hours (did we all know that? IE the length of time it could remain airborne? ).
How does that fit with Sajid? And hasn't he taken over from Hancock so is, or should be, aware of the science? A train is largely a closed system as well isn't it?
Lastly I've heard so many people talk about Covid as having to be lived with - the same as flu. But isn't there a major, major difference? I was not aware that flu had asymptomatic transmission. I thought flu victims largely felt like poo and were aware they had an illness - so tended to take to bed and in effect isolated. Ok, some got worse symptoms than others, but I thought with flue, most people realised they had an illness of some sort. Covid seems to have quite a large asymptomatic transmission base. So Sajid, sitting on his train, may think he's ok and take off his mask and breath out the virus. Then hours later, a cleaner or another passenger picks up the virus as they're not wearing masks either because they use Sajid's 'it all depends on the circumstances' rule (or not rule) and he's now not on the train, but his virus is. Is that how it works?
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The data supports the date in this specific instance.
(I'm not saying I go along with all this, I'm just trying to summarise what he said)
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”