According to my on-line check, Christmas was a pagan winter festival to cheer folk up in the cold dreary winter hard months. I have read reporrts that because of the position of the "star" and weather reports from the time, it ws actualy July Jesus was meant to have been born
Yes Christmas has it’s roots in pagan festivals and was a way of brightening the dark days of winter. I am not a Christian but I know friends who are quite angry at the thought that one of the main Christian festivals can be “ rescheduled “ To me Christmas is about the people I love, sending cards and buying gifts and spending time and effort cooking a delicious meal and decorating my home to welcome them. I am a mom, I want to gather up my children and be with them at Christmas. I want to see little children excited on Christmas Eve for Santa to come and I want to see my friends and celebrate the good people I have in my life and think too of those I have lost.
I am not letting a virus stop me doing as much of that as I legally can.
All other religions have accepted the loss of their festivals with sadness but understanding. Many Christians are prepared to do the same, as are many atheists. They have the soft warmth of knowing they have done the right thing to sustain them through the dark days ahead.
You are putting your own desires ahead of what is best for the sake of others. How will you justify that to yourself and your family when the consequences of such behaviour become apparent?
I think we've reached a point where me continuing to post on this topic isn't really helping anyone or giving the clarity day to day I assume most people are looking for. So I'll finish with a last note and leave it there.
@steveTu@punkdoc the excess deaths measure doesn't tell us what you suggest. It's an indicator that "something" is going on, requires investigating, but not a determination of what. Certainly excess deaths are up, but is that because a covid infection has directly killed someone without comorbidities?
Or is it because covid has caused insurance companies to deny cover to care homes who allow visitors, leading to a cognitive decline in care home residents, and increased deaths from dementia? Or an increase in suicides, mental health issues, heart attacks without seeking treatment, and so forth.
Without accurate numbers, we can't make accurate decisions. Without clearly stating assumptions and margins of error, we can't know where our logic may be faulty or how to mitigate for it. This isn't rain falling from the sky, this is whether a decision today on covid causes N x 2 deaths tomorrow.
Punkdoc, I'm not arguing whether or not covid is serious. The answer is clearly yes. What I'm trying to point out is that whilst you are focused on the pointy end of care, and your view is understandably through that lens, we must not lose sight of the strategic issue which is far, far wider and more impactful than for example the number of available level 3 beds. The stats you posted are interesting, but still don't tell us what we need to know (unless you have the actual mortality stats which are under embargo).
I've previously posted about QALY and ethical frameworks for capacity decision making and so on. I won't recap that. But every decision must be taken in balance. Yes, a lock down today may interrupt transmission. It may keep ICU capacity under control. But what if that lockdown causes further job losses, which in turn reduce tax revenue, which in turn means the doctors, nurses, cleaners etc cannot be paid? What if it means cancer screening is suspended, and we trade fewer deaths today for far more preventable deaths next year?
Are we trading N covid deaths for outcome X? How do we know, because we're lumping in people hit by a bus with deaths directly due to covid. The methodology is absolutely flawed, and simply saying "Yes but forget that, it really is bad no matter what" doesn't allow us to make intelligent decisions.
And if no vaccine was available, because we're lucky, what then? Lockdown forever? It's all short term tactical thinking, because the longer term strategic thinking is unpalatable.
It's fine making sure your milk in the fridge lasts until next week when you can get some more. You'll portion it out and keep track of how much is left for your cereal. To you, that's strategy. But someone still has to make sure the cows are fed and the farm fences are maintained, and milking can go on next week, month, year. To them that's strategy, and your fridge is tactical.
As a nation, we're looking in the fridge with panic, when we should be watching the field.
I've had to simplify things to make it reasonable to post on a forum, but I hope my point is clear. I'll leave it there and return to my main reason for visiting the forum: trying to kill as few plants as possible.
There are two sorts of decisions that have to be made ... those by the policy makers and those by individuals .... statistics are what governments etc need to make policy decisions, but they don't really help individuals to make decisions about living day to day. Governments may need to accept a certain number of Covid-related mortalities in order that the country continues to function, but few individuals are happy for those deaths to be amongs those they love.
What individuals need to know are the ways to keep themselves and their loved ones as healthy as possible. If an otherwise healthy person catches Covid19 and becomes very ill or dies it doesn't really help their loved ones to know that it's quite an unusual event.
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
We do have the figures for deaths in ICU, there is no embargo on them. The overall ICU mortality of COVID cases is about 40%. We expect this number to fall, because treatment has improved considerably since the start
How can you lie there and think of England When you don't even know who's in the team
And of course in all this conversation about decisions and policy choices, it would be much clearer if we had a test and trace system that works properly and a way to make sure people self isolate when they have to. In the TES article I posted earlier from the University of East Anglia it's how they succeeded in nearly eradicating infections on campus. Until we have a functional way to contact trace we are all in danger and should be doing our best to break the chain of transmission. All those lessons were learned by South East Asian countries years ago here we still fumble in the dark with a bunch of charlatans enriching their mates and offer no value to the rest of us.
@strelitzia32 thank you for your input. I cannot claim to understand 100% of what you post but you clearly know what you are talking about. You have been courteous to other posters throughout.
Posts
To me Christmas is about the people I love, sending cards and buying gifts and spending time and effort cooking a delicious meal and decorating my home to welcome them. I am a mom, I want to gather up my children and be with them at Christmas. I want to see little children excited on Christmas Eve for Santa to come and I want to see my friends and celebrate the good people I have in my life and think too of those I have lost.
@steveTu @punkdoc the excess deaths measure doesn't tell us what you suggest. It's an indicator that "something" is going on, requires investigating, but not a determination of what. Certainly excess deaths are up, but is that because a covid infection has directly killed someone without comorbidities?
Or is it because covid has caused insurance companies to deny cover to care homes who allow visitors, leading to a cognitive decline in care home residents, and increased deaths from dementia? Or an increase in suicides, mental health issues, heart attacks without seeking treatment, and so forth.
Without accurate numbers, we can't make accurate decisions. Without clearly stating assumptions and margins of error, we can't know where our logic may be faulty or how to mitigate for it. This isn't rain falling from the sky, this is whether a decision today on covid causes N x 2 deaths tomorrow.
Punkdoc, I'm not arguing whether or not covid is serious. The answer is clearly yes. What I'm trying to point out is that whilst you are focused on the pointy end of care, and your view is understandably through that lens, we must not lose sight of the strategic issue which is far, far wider and more impactful than for example the number of available level 3 beds. The stats you posted are interesting, but still don't tell us what we need to know (unless you have the actual mortality stats which are under embargo).
I've previously posted about QALY and ethical frameworks for capacity decision making and so on. I won't recap that. But every decision must be taken in balance. Yes, a lock down today may interrupt transmission. It may keep ICU capacity under control. But what if that lockdown causes further job losses, which in turn reduce tax revenue, which in turn means the doctors, nurses, cleaners etc cannot be paid? What if it means cancer screening is suspended, and we trade fewer deaths today for far more preventable deaths next year?
Are we trading N covid deaths for outcome X? How do we know, because we're lumping in people hit by a bus with deaths directly due to covid. The methodology is absolutely flawed, and simply saying "Yes but forget that, it really is bad no matter what" doesn't allow us to make intelligent decisions.
And if no vaccine was available, because we're lucky, what then? Lockdown forever? It's all short term tactical thinking, because the longer term strategic thinking is unpalatable.
It's fine making sure your milk in the fridge lasts until next week when you can get some more. You'll portion it out and keep track of how much is left for your cereal. To you, that's strategy. But someone still has to make sure the cows are fed and the farm fences are maintained, and milking can go on next week, month, year. To them that's strategy, and your fridge is tactical.
As a nation, we're looking in the fridge with panic, when we should be watching the field.
I've had to simplify things to make it reasonable to post on a forum, but I hope my point is clear. I'll leave it there and return to my main reason for visiting the forum: trying to kill as few plants as possible.
What individuals need to know are the ways to keep themselves and their loved ones as healthy as possible. If an otherwise healthy person catches Covid19 and becomes very ill or dies it doesn't really help their loved ones to know that it's quite an unusual event.
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
The overall ICU mortality of COVID cases is about 40%.
We expect this number to fall, because treatment has improved considerably since the start
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border
https://www.private-eye.co.uk/columnists
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
Also thanks to @Punkdoc, I don't always agree with your posts but appreciate your efforts to inform us.