Does it matter what appears on the death certificate? Isn't it always the case than when NHS resource (and I know that is bland as different illnesses use different resources) is used up, people will die from a variety of reasons that they wouldn't have died of had resource been available? In the past didn't we have issues with patients dying on trolleys and even in ambulances queuing to get bays when resource was short for whatever reason?
In this case does it matter to a family if a member dies of cancer, a heart attack, flu,
pneumonia or covid that wouldn't have happened had 'resource' been available?
My wife died of cancer - but I think (my memory may fail me a bit here as I wasn't that with it at the time) the doc said she actually died of a fluid build up in the lungs as her organs failed. But my wife died of cancer and used resource because of cancer.
OK, I follow, for planning in future and for 'control', knowing what is using the 'resource' is vital - but at this point it seems we all know that Covid is causing a massive issue. Unless Covid is masking the detection of another major illness that occurred at the same time, I'm not sure I follow what difference *now* knowing what the cause of death is. Did the person have Covid - and did they then because of that, take up NHS resource is the question isn't it?
We know Covid is a major issue, we know that people meeting indoors for prolonged periods is a cause of the spread of the virus. This isn't 'fear' - no more that me following speed limits or using crossings or having a flu jab or ... is fear - but isn't it just sensible to not mix if we don't have to?
@steveTu I personally believe that if numbers are used to justify decisions affecting everyone and everything in this country, they should be correct and evidenced, with assumptions documented. Otherwise how do we know what unintended harms are the side effect of decisions based on incorrect information, how do we debate them intelligently, and how do we defeat nonsense conspiracy theorists who seize upon obfuscation as evidence of something other than incompetence.
A decision based on false information is no better than a random guess in the dark.
But what comes first? I agree (coming from a computing background - GIGO) that accurate data is fundamental, but in as much as I can tell from the sky the likelihood of rain, I don't always need 100% accuracy to make decisions - I can fine tune as the data becomes more accurate. So do you react and gather the data or wait until you have the data and then react based on accurate data? For example - should I wait until Jan/Feb to see the effect of Christmas (from accurate data) OR do I work from the data I have now to project. All the models are projections anyway - so to me, we know the numbers will rise. React now and stop the numbers increasing rather than wait for the numbers to increase? The data about Covid is enough to show excess deaths by covid use of resource - does it matter if its 21%, 22%, 30% ..17% as deaths doesn't show the full picture in isolation anyway does it?
The data I'd like to see are positive case Covid hospitalisations by duration of stay.
Thanks for the kind comment about my wife, but I honestly only put it in to clumsily highlight the issue of the cause of death not necessarily being the cause of treatment and resource used. So in your example of the patient having covid on their death certificate but being hit by a bus is only meaningful if you're talking about actual death and not resource used. That works both ways though - as the person may have had Covid and never used any (or minimal) resource.
I am trying, but obviously not succeeding in convincing people of the seriousness of what we are dealing with. Here are some figures from our research group showing figures from ICU's in England and Wales [ not Scotland ]
I am not going to explain them, but I think the scientifically literate [ not meant as an insult to anybody ] will be able to make sense of them.
The key here is that these patients were admitted due to COVID and not with COVID as decided by the ICU consultant admitting the patient.
This work only goes up to the 23rd of October, so misses the recent increases.
More will be published next year.
How can you lie there and think of England When you don't even know who's in the team
Could I ask a question please of those in the NHS who might know the protocols here. I know I could email my local GP practice but they do seem overwhelmed and therefore I do not want to trouble them with such an inconsequential matter.
In March I am having a timber fence in the garden replaced with a natural stone wall. As it is likely to be undisturbed for 100+ years we thought it would be fun to bury within it a time capsule. We have all sorts of ideas of what to include, one of the items being a photocopy of my wife’s journal of a Plague Year - she’s a modern day Defoe! What I would like to include is an empty Covid vaccine vial. Here’s my question? What happens to the empty vials? Do they have to be accounted for in some way, or are they just binned and so I could be given one if I asked nicely?
Thank you @punkdoc I will have to look at this on the laptop later but even scrolling round on the phone's screen I can see it makes grim reading. There was a medic on R4 this am talking about post covid syndrome, it seems up to 1 in 5 still have symptoms after 6 weeks and 1 in 10 have symptoms/ issues after 12 weeks. This virus has consequences for all body systems, but it seems some people refuse to accept how serious it is.
@ punkdoc I am with you too. Thank you for this valuable info. Europe just hasn't "got it" yet. Look to the Southern Hemisphere for some inspiration. Lockdown in Melbourne after 500 cases reported lasted nigh on 5 months!! It's a virus for goodness sake. Are you going to go around kissing people with a cold sore??? Same difference!!
@Dovefromabove I don’t think we will ever agree on this subject but I am surprised that you feel the need to resort to personal insults.
You are perfectly entitled to do what you want at Christmas. I will be following government guidelines and seeing my family. Not all of them but some at least.
You are also perfectly entitled to celebrate Christmas in the summer. I won’t be doing that.
I am not sure who says it but I believe you can prove anything with statistics. I do agree with @strelitzia32 that the virus is something we will have to learn to live with.
Posts
A decision based on false information is no better than a random guess in the dark.
Sorry to hear about your wife
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border
Here are some figures from our research group showing figures from ICU's in England and Wales [ not Scotland ]
I am not going to explain them, but I think the scientifically literate [ not meant as an insult to anybody ] will be able to make sense of them.
The key here is that these patients were admitted due to COVID and not with COVID as decided by the ICU consultant admitting the patient.
This work only goes up to the 23rd of October, so misses the recent increases.
More will be published next year.
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border
In March I am having a timber fence in the garden replaced with a natural stone wall. As it is likely to be undisturbed for 100+ years we thought it would be fun to bury within it a time capsule. We have all sorts of ideas of what to include, one of the items being a photocopy of my wife’s journal of a Plague Year - she’s a modern day Defoe! What I would like to include is an empty Covid vaccine vial. Here’s my question? What happens to the empty vials? Do they have to be accounted for in some way, or are they just binned and so I could be given one if I asked nicely?