Science only knows what it knows at a point in time. ..... Personally, I don't think you can say yet that omicron is 'less serious' unless you qualify that by saying 'in our vaccinated and pre-infected population'.
This is often true with 'real world' science, though, isn't it? You can't say whether this or that diet does or doesn't have some specific effect your health because real people know what they're eating and can and will adjust other lifestyle elements, whether consciously or not. Populations are messy and unpredictable and behaviour is always an unknown until massive amounts of empirical data become available.
We won't ever know whether lockdowns 'work'. We can't tell how much the infection rate is affected by a specific measure - mask wearing, say, or 2m distancing - because some people change their behaviour at the same time, either because the mask makes them feel 'safer' so more careless, or the constant reminders to 'stay apart' makes them more aware and more careful. Or because some people deliberately react against any rule. Or some people self limit regardless of external 'rules'. The age group issue will be complicated by 2 years of that group being told they are vulnerable and at risk. What that will change, I can't say, but I'm sure that age cohort will react differently to the perceived or real risk compared to primary school children or people in their 20s.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
I think generally people are really impatient for hard and fast conclusions about Covid. I understand why, but you really can't get enough data quickly to see trends. There is not enough research and what there is will take years to parse. I personally get peed when people start releasing books slating health policies that were only devised a year before writing.
To some extent I thnk this about developing skills to live with uncertainty - which can be hard. We have to stand not knowing, for now; building a picture slowly, over time; allowing teams of specialists to do their best on our behalf; investigating the data we do have; scrunitising the sources we have; asking interesting questions without getting caught up in doom or the fear of uncertainty.
Attacking others will almost certainly not help. Panicking, discourtsey, assuming dishonest motivations, addiction to social media, listening to popular 'influencers' who are long on opinions and short on hard data - I don't think any of these are useful.
It would be nice - though probably hopelessly unrealistic - to think that once we do have all that information, in a decade or two, we'll do something constructive with it so we are better informed for the next one.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
'...Attacking others will almost certainly not help. Panicking, discourtsey,
assuming dishonest motivations, addiction to social media, listening to
popular 'influencers' who are long on opinions and short on hard data -
I don't think any of these are useful. ...'
I'm not sure how any of that changes whether calling a variant 'less serious' is valid or not.
I'm not after hard and fast conclusions - far from it - the opposite in fact (I am only tooo aware about what science knows when) - hence my objection to leaping to a conclusion ('less serious') that doesn't appear to be known yet. Maybe the next month will show that and maybe it will be shown that omicron is intrinsically 'less serious' (and it's not the effect of the vaccine and prior infection making it seem less serious) - I hope that's the case. Or else it's like me standing in an air conditioned, fire proof box with a fire raging around me and saying 'fire is less serious' - no. Fire is still as dangerous - it's the precautions that make the difference.
@steveTu the comments were a general reflection, not really a direct response. A lot of my friends are finding the uncertainty unbearable and exhausting, esp those with children. They don't know if kids will be off school again (they are dreading more lockdowns). They can't firmly plan holiday or trips to see family. They find they are getting stuck and quite low, because they have lost a sense of foward momentum, and often realising how much holidays help their mental health; even a weekend away. I can relate.
Wanting answers and a firm footing now is a natural response, esp when everyone is so tired. The country (and the world) has a chronic disease, and it will be a long haul.
I suspect waiting a decade or two to analyse all the info from this pandemic to help us prepare for the next will be too late.
Too many people living in close proximity and poor housing, poor conditions in animal husbandry and slaughter, too many people travelling, too many people not taking basic measures to protect themselves and others - the next pandemic could be just a few years away.
Vendée - 20kms from Atlantic coast.
"The price good men (and women) pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men (and women)."
There is no doubt that Omicron is milder than both Delta and the original strain. This can never be proved, because we are no longer virus or vaccine naive, so the evidence will remain lab based.
How can you lie there and think of England When you don't even know who's in the team
Microclots... my thoughts are that it may be worth trying Aspirin, its recommended after many medical clotting episodes...post MI, post heart valve replacement, ... just a thought.
Stained teacups. The ones at work were usually disgusting. If I was somewhere for more than a few days, I would take the lot home and run them through the dishwasher twice. That usually sorted them. I use steradent tablets for flasks that are stained.
Posts
We won't ever know whether lockdowns 'work'. We can't tell how much the infection rate is affected by a specific measure - mask wearing, say, or 2m distancing - because some people change their behaviour at the same time, either because the mask makes them feel 'safer' so more careless, or the constant reminders to 'stay apart' makes them more aware and more careful. Or because some people deliberately react against any rule. Or some people self limit regardless of external 'rules'. The age group issue will be complicated by 2 years of that group being told they are vulnerable and at risk. What that will change, I can't say, but I'm sure that age cohort will react differently to the perceived or real risk compared to primary school children or people in their 20s.
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Too many people living in close proximity and poor housing, poor conditions in animal husbandry and slaughter, too many people travelling, too many people not taking basic measures to protect themselves and others - the next pandemic could be just a few years away.
This can never be proved, because we are no longer virus or vaccine naive, so the evidence will remain lab based.
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border