Isn't that equally as 'true' for Delta with people who have been vaccinated? IE the symptoms being so mild that people weren't being tested as they didn't realise they were carrying the virus? How many people here have been jabbed and had a feeling of not being quite right, but not then tested? But how do you then know numbers? All you then ever see are tested cases and extrapolations.
The numbers of 'tested cases' reported appeared to be taking a more steady line up. Oddly if you look at the figures for the past few weeks/months, weekends roughly take a dip - I would have guessed that that's down to schools and testing not occurring.
It has been true throughout, Steve, yes. the REACT study is the one that attempts to overcome that issue, but it takes a while to process their info so the latest published report from them is for October. The data lags.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Is this to be believed? didn’t we all hope COVID would weaken as it mutates.
From The Telegraph:
Unlike in the first wave, the indicative signs of infections are more similar to the common cold.
Prof Tim Spector said: "The majority of symptoms are just like a common cold, so we're talking about headaches, sore throat, runny nose, fatigue, and things like sneezing. So, things like fever and cough and loss of smell are now actually in the minority of the symptoms that we're seeing."
In places like London where the new strain is dominant, "it's far more likely to be Covid than a cold", Prof Spector warned.
He said: "Currently, across the country. It's about one in four common colds being Covid".
Gardening on the wild, windy west side of Dartmoor.
Yes but they HOPE it will weaken as it mutates,. We still don't know how our population will react. Early data from SA is promising BUT their population is much younger, their immune systems tend to be more reactive, partly because they tend to be exposed to a wider variety of other infections, as well as the age factor. As many are saying prepare for the worst, HOPE for the best.
It is normally the trend with coronaviruses, as I understand it. But the virus hasn't read the manual and may not follow the trend.
Sad news about Jethro @Lyn. I remember him from before he was famous nationally and used to go round the pubs and venues in Cornwall. Some of his humour was really very 'local'. We all laughed a lot; people from out of the county were mystified. Someone else can't retell them - it was all in the delivery.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
'Modelling has suggested the peak could be around half what was seen last winter or approaching double'
Eh?? ..that's a fairly wide latitude no better than guesswork. I think I'd take a different approach to the modelling...the current method doesn't appear to give much confidence does it? The last paragraph is just a face saving caveat... particularly with reference to disproportionate isolation requirements.
Posts
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
I think this summarises the possibilities very well. Jenny Harries is not prone to shroud waving, so is worth listening to.
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border
Gardening in Central Norfolk on improved gritty moraine over chalk ... free-draining.
From The Telegraph:
Unlike in the first wave, the indicative signs of infections are more similar to the common cold.
Prof Tim Spector said: "The majority of symptoms are just like a common cold, so we're talking about headaches, sore throat, runny nose, fatigue, and things like sneezing. So, things like fever and cough and loss of smell are now actually in the minority of the symptoms that we're seeing."
In places like London where the new strain is dominant, "it's far more likely to be Covid than a cold", Prof Spector warned.
He said: "Currently, across the country. It's about one in four common colds being Covid".
Sad news about Jethro @Lyn. I remember him from before he was famous nationally and used to go round the pubs and venues in Cornwall. Some of his humour was really very 'local'. We all laughed a lot; people from out of the county were mystified. Someone else can't retell them - it was all in the delivery.
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Eh?? ..that's a fairly wide latitude no better than guesswork.
I think I'd take a different approach to the modelling...the current method doesn't appear to give much confidence does it?
The last paragraph is just a face saving caveat... particularly with reference to disproportionate isolation requirements.
I am very grateful for what the NHS is doing and for the small part I have played in it.
You want to trivialise this, which is fine, but lots of people are dying.
The experts I am in meetings with are deeply concerned, there is a genuine possibility of a catastrophic failure of health care provision.
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border