“ because there is a high chance to get snow around the 4th of December and so I shouldn’t fly to Germany”
You’re being unduly harsh on the December 4th weather there. I cannot speak about snow prospects in Germany but at Heathrow on that date over the past 25 years the temperature peaked at 6° on 5 occasions, 7° x2, 8° x8, 9° x1, 10° x4, 11° x2, 12° x1 and 14° x2. Those are certainly not temperatures you associate with disruptive snow.
The problem in Germany is that the West gets mostly Atlantic weather whereas the East gets continental weather. It was probly 10 C in West Germany but freezing cold in East Germany in February 1986.
@Fairygirl My mother was positive surprised that they had snow the day around my birthday last week. The 21. had often snow years ago, and I think that we will get the normal cold winter this year.
” 18-20th Nov, S. England 2ins.; 25-29th Nov., Scotland, 6-12in. 7-8th Jan, widespread. 22-23rd Feb., south west England, 6in. Feb very cold (CET -1.1degC); 1st Mar, blizzard, England. Apr, numerous places more than 10 days snowfall; 10 June, S Cairngorms”
I cannot speak about snow prospects in Germany but at Heathrow on that date over the past 25 years the temperature peaked at 6° on 5 occasions, 7° x2, 8° x8, 9° x1, 10° x4, 11° x2, 12° x1 and 14° x2. Those are certainly not temperatures you associate with disruptive snow.
LOL, I have still the winter 2017/2018 in mind. It’s true, we had the first heavy snow on the 10 of December and again on the 27 of December 2017. Both were enough to stop the traffic 😊 I still wonder how the both Russians made it on the 2nd by train from London to Salisbury to poison the Skripals, because Wiltshire had extreme snow on the 1st, and everything was halt until the 4th of March. No bus, no train.
Don’t ask how I made it to Berlin on the 3rd. It was a nightmare.
I suppose it's just that specific snow-related events stick in the memory. My 3-hour wait for a train was one. The other is 30th November 2009. It started snowing about mid-afternoon. My boss sent us all home about when it was starting to get dark so maybe 4pm. It took me over 4 hours to get home (Scunthorpe to Doncaster, normally not much over half an hour). Gridlock trying to get out of sunny Scunny, then the motorways were a complete white-out, couldn't see the signs or lane markings, struggled to even see where the exit slip roads were, hardly any other traffic. Very slow going indeed.
Doncaster, South Yorkshire. Soil type: sandy, well-drained
Same here, I don't think it got above freezing here for 3 weeks after that snowfall at the end of November, and then the thaw was very gradual. I didn't lose many plants though, probably because there was a blanket of snow before it got really cold.
Doncaster, South Yorkshire. Soil type: sandy, well-drained
They do. Last November much of the country was under a fair covering of snow which was unusually early, I remember it well as we could only get in/out with a 4x4. Yesterday I was working outside in a T-shirt, inside the PT it was 27c.
Apart from it getting gradually warmer there is no prediction or pattern to the weather though.
Apart from it getting gradually warmer there is no prediction or pattern to the weather though.
All metrologists would immediately contradict you, and my OH who used to work as a wind miller can tell you novels about how to read the weather and its patterns and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_lore.
There is definitely a pattern like every 5 years is not only a Leep year, but also there is Spring delay every couple of years. Or don't take holidays after the 15 October, because the weather turns in Europe around that time. Of course a statistic like my one is short, but it's fun to extend it over the years, and so far, one thing was confirmed: snowflakes in November, no snow for the rest of the winter.
I have another statistic to offer. Neighbour's cherry tree was full in flowers in: 2016 - 20th of April 2017 - 20th of March 2018 - end of April 2019 - 23rd of March 2020 - March 10 2021 - April 2 2022 - 27th of March 2023 - ? ... should be April
Simone, what is the next number in the series? For the life of me I cannot see a pattern there.
I think it is interesting to keep weather observations but I am convinced some of your assertions would not stand up to analysis. For example, Spring is late every couple of years. That is surely a truism because if you’ll look at a long set of data half the results will be above the mean and half will be below but what the pattern will not show is the sequencing above, below, above, below etc. Furthermore climate change is bringing forward the date of Spring which is not a precise moment in time anyway so saying ‘this year Spring commenced on …’ is not possible.
Don’t take holidays in Europe after October 15th. Again that is an assertion that is riddled with complications. Which part of Europe, it’s a big place? What type of holiday, sunbathing on beaches or walking in mountains? Of course as Autumn deepens and winter comes closer then the weather worsens but you cannot choose a specific date as a tipping point.
Snow flurries in November herald no snow for the rest of the year. Is this specific to Wiltshire because I am sure the folk in the Cairngorms would take issue? I have to say this piece of folk lore is not something I have heard before. In my part of the world snow flurries in November are rare and I do not remember the few occasions when they have occurred. Do you have any dates? However take a look at my reply to Jenny J’s post which summarised snow occurrences in 1985/6
“ 18-20th Nov, S. England 2ins.; 25-29th Nov., Scotland, 6-12in. 7-8th Jan, widespread. 22-23rd Feb., south west England, 6in. Feb very cold (CET -1.1degC); 1st Mar, blizzard, England. Apr, numerous places more than 10 days snowfall; 10 June, S Cairngorms”
I expect if I checked that data source I could find plenty more contradictions to your rule.
PS I am not a meteorologist but I do have a degree in Geography so I have touched upon the subject.
Posts
I ♥ my garden.
” 18-20th Nov, S. England 2ins.; 25-29th Nov., Scotland, 6-12in. 7-8th Jan, widespread. 22-23rd Feb., south west England, 6in. Feb very cold (CET -1.1degC); 1st Mar, blizzard, England. Apr, numerous places more than 10 days snowfall; 10 June, S Cairngorms”
I still wonder how the both Russians made it on the 2nd by train from London to Salisbury to poison the Skripals, because Wiltshire had extreme snow on the 1st, and everything was halt until the 4th of March. No bus, no train.
I ♥ my garden.
I ♥ my garden.
Yesterday I was working outside in a T-shirt, inside the PT it was 27c.
Apart from it getting gradually warmer there is no prediction or pattern to the weather though.
There is definitely a pattern like every 5 years is not only a Leep year, but also there is Spring delay every couple of years. Or don't take holidays after the 15 October, because the weather turns in Europe around that time.
Of course a statistic like my one is short, but it's fun to extend it over the years, and so far, one thing was confirmed: snowflakes in November, no snow for the rest of the winter.
I have another statistic to offer. Neighbour's cherry tree was full in flowers in:
2016 - 20th of April
2017 - 20th of March
2018 - end of April
2019 - 23rd of March
2020 - March 10
2021 - April 2
2022 - 27th of March
2023 - ? ... should be April
We will see.
I ♥ my garden.
Simone, what is the next number in the series? For the life of me I cannot see a pattern there.
Don’t take holidays in Europe after October 15th. Again that is an assertion that is riddled with complications. Which part of Europe, it’s a big place? What type of holiday, sunbathing on beaches or walking in mountains? Of course as Autumn deepens and winter comes closer then the weather worsens but you cannot choose a specific date as a tipping point.
Snow flurries in November herald no snow for the rest of the year. Is this specific to Wiltshire because I am sure the folk in the Cairngorms would take issue? I have to say this piece of folk lore is not something I have heard before. In my part of the world snow flurries in November are rare and I do not remember the few occasions when they have occurred. Do you have any dates? However take a look at my reply to Jenny J’s post which summarised snow occurrences in 1985/6
“ 18-20th Nov, S. England 2ins.; 25-29th Nov., Scotland, 6-12in. 7-8th Jan, widespread. 22-23rd Feb., south west England, 6in. Feb very cold (CET -1.1degC); 1st Mar, blizzard, England. Apr, numerous places more than 10 days snowfall; 10 June, S Cairngorms”
I expect if I checked that data source I could find plenty more contradictions to your rule.
PS I am not a meteorologist but I do have a degree in Geography so I have touched upon the subject.