Even vaccinating the first 5 or 6 groups of people will take months, plus the month before they are protected, so some sort of ‘normality’ will take at least that long.
Why? If tests can be done rapidly surely vaccines can be administered rapidly too. There is 70% protection after the first vaccination and then 3 weeks later full protection. There is no reason why the most vulnerable cannot be protected by the end of the year. I don’t understand why people are so negative about this wonderful news. It’s a real light at the end of a very short tunnel.
It would be wonderful to be able to look on the vaccine as some sort of magic wand and that, after having it, everything will go back to normal. Except it can’t, not for a long time, if ever.
I’m not being negative here, just trying to be realistic.
All 3 posts above from debs, helios and slipperyelm are not quite correct.
Debs - the leading vaccines (pfizer, moderna, Oxford) all require 2 doses spaced 3 to 4 weeks apart, followed by a 10 to 14 day period before "immunity" (see below) is achieved. Therefore, if you started the protocol today, you wouldn't be protected until mid January. I'm not sure where you got the 70% stat from, there is some protection offered but efficacy after one dose is less than 50%.
However, the vaccines are indeed great news. The strategy now is to manage the spread of the virus until the high risk groups can get the vaccine.
Remember that all of these vaccines have a sub-100% efficacy, therefore statistically even if the entire population has a jab, we cannot eradicate the virus ever without other controls. This is not a big problem though, because humans live with all sorts of pathogens - the fear of this one has just got out of control.
SlipperyElm, Helios - it won't be another 12 months, or "never" before things go back to normal. I previously posted the green book link, which gives all the underlying info about vaccine rollout and is the source of the table of priority that the media keeps using.
As above, the strategy is to vaccinate high risk groups. The oxford vaccine, assuming it passes mhra, will be far more important for this than the Pfizer one, due to logistics (for example, ability to roll out small quantities to housebound elderly in rural areas). Assuming further approvals (oxford, moderna etc), high risk groups that represent the 99% of deaths etc will be vaccinated and protected by May/June.
At that point, and with summer approaching, the risk rapidly drops to below flu-like levels (dangerous to some groups, but we live with it), and restrictions will be removed to restart the economy. Because, with a vaccine protecting the most vulnerable groups, not getting the economy back on track is the greatest risk to the nation's and our individual heath.
Thanks @strelitzia32, the voice of reason again. I'm moderately pleased that vaccines look like being available within the next 6-8 months but as I said right at the beginning, the virus won't be eradicated, we will have to learn to live with it for the rest of our lives. That doesn't frighten me in the least. I'm far more likely to get dementia or cancer at my age.
The fact that we've managed to develop a vaccine this quickly (or at all; I have colleagues who have spent decades trying to do this for other corona viruses) is fantastic news. However, the logistics of delivering it to virtually the whole population is far from trivial and will take many months, during which time social distancing et al will need to be maintained - the 'R' and covid-related hospitalisation numbers will drive that as they always have.
A trowel in the hand is worth a thousand lost under a bush.
Posts
longer at risk what’s the issue with a return to normality?
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border
Debs - the leading vaccines (pfizer, moderna, Oxford) all require 2 doses spaced 3 to 4 weeks apart, followed by a 10 to 14 day period before "immunity" (see below) is achieved. Therefore, if you started the protocol today, you wouldn't be protected until mid January. I'm not sure where you got the 70% stat from, there is some protection offered but efficacy after one dose is less than 50%.
However, the vaccines are indeed great news. The strategy now is to manage the spread of the virus until the high risk groups can get the vaccine.
Remember that all of these vaccines have a sub-100% efficacy, therefore statistically even if the entire population has a jab, we cannot eradicate the virus ever without other controls. This is not a big problem though, because humans live with all sorts of pathogens - the fear of this one has just got out of control.
SlipperyElm, Helios - it won't be another 12 months, or "never" before things go back to normal. I previously posted the green book link, which gives all the underlying info about vaccine rollout and is the source of the table of priority that the media keeps using.
As above, the strategy is to vaccinate high risk groups. The oxford vaccine, assuming it passes mhra, will be far more important for this than the Pfizer one, due to logistics (for example, ability to roll out small quantities to housebound elderly in rural areas). Assuming further approvals (oxford, moderna etc), high risk groups that represent the 99% of deaths etc will be vaccinated and protected by May/June.
At that point, and with summer approaching, the risk rapidly drops to below flu-like levels (dangerous to some groups, but we live with it), and restrictions will be removed to restart the economy. Because, with a vaccine protecting the most vulnerable groups, not getting the economy back on track is the greatest risk to the nation's and our individual heath.