@steveTu I specifically said we are NOT at the 'pinnacle of science' so I doubt you actually read what I wrote.
What we know and what we've guessed is all out there - it's not hidden. Scientists discuss it all openly if you want to listen. Vested interests - such as Ian Plimer and Nigel Lawson - like to use that against them. Those that sell fossil fuels are rich and powerful people.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Science evolves in the light of new information, but we have to work with what we have or can discover. I had a 40 year career in science & there were "givens" at the start that were proven completely wrong by the finish. Just because we don't know everything does not mean we should not try to tackle today's problems with the knowledge we do have.
To be honest a lot of the science is over my head .... probably a good thing as the bits I can follow are scary enough. But there does seem to be a consensus that the way we all live our lives isn't helping.
I agree with @punkdoc ... it's not right to just say "sod it" and carry on without a thought for others. It is the poor nations who will be the first to bear the brunt of future climate extremes. I think many already are ... Given this, those of us in more affluent countries, could at least try and introduce some small changes ..... Lots of small things that are easy to do will add up if enough people are involved.
Bee x
Gardener and beekeeper in beautiful Scottish Borders
A single bee creates just one twelfth of a teaspoon of honey in her lifetime
True, Bee, but big things are needed, too. Every unit of heat from Lyn's efficient oil boiler emits 4 times as much CO2 into the atmosphere as every unit of heat from my heating system. Turning down the thermostat gets you so far, but the big shifts only happen when you make a step change. Those step changes cost money.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
I agree .... and on a personal level I have made some big changes .... but that doesn't mean I couldn't do more. Cost, as you have pointed out, is a factor. I'd love to swap our car for an electric one .... but they are hellish expensive. Plus, we live in a very rural area with little infrastructure to support electric cars. I'd happily use public transport .... but it simply doesn't exist locally where I am.
On a broader point, I've just watched the BBC Leaders' Debate ..... not one word from either of them on climate change .... it beggars belief.
Bee x
Gardener and beekeeper in beautiful Scottish Borders
A single bee creates just one twelfth of a teaspoon of honey in her lifetime
No, not at all - I know or see nothing more than what is already known. But what occurs in all walks of life is certain issues become dominant. All I've been trying to get across here, is that the issues are multi-faceted. Tackling waste will tackle CO2 - the UK's CO2 emissions are relatively low, but that's not a true reflection on consumption as we all know - we are no longer a manufacturing nation pe se. But how much 'stuff' that we buy in from places like China go straight in the bin? Manufactured-packaged-shipped-delivered-retailed - bought - binned - bin collection - waste sifting - recycling. All those elements contain CO2 production. Ditto food production - cut waste - cut CO2. Appliances that are no longer made to last - or are no repairable - ditto.
I admit, I am part of the problem in so many ways. Every Christmas I bought Christmas crackers - and every year the stuff in the crackers, and the crackers go in the bin. I wonder what percentage of Christmas gifts end up in the same place? I buy from want not from need. There's a cultural change required.
And I would be happier if I thought that the planet usually had a static temp range - so we knew that CO2 in this immediate case was the only issue - but that isn't the case. The planet's eco system fluctuates alarmingly over millions of years. How do we know we're not on the cusp of another 'natural' ecological change? A mini warming like in the medieval period? What caused the changes in the past? What will cause such changes in the future? Someone will live through (and have lived through) one of these natural changes. I wonder what the people skating on the Thames thought? What would our scientists today make of such an event?
It concerns me that by focusing just on one aspect, the 'just Get It Done' (what an insane concept that is), it detracts from what might turn out to be other important areas of research. And by having a 'just get in done' attitude, it stops 'better' solutions - ie potentially static chargeable battery cars over induction charged. We saw this with diesel - I have driven diesels for decades. They were promoted - better mileage lesser pollution - but then it turns out it depends on what you're measuring. Now they're the devil incarnate - but the problem is that some people (and I'm one) can't just change with every 'fad' - and it's that constant change than I'm railing against anyway.
All I've been trying to get across here, is that the issues are multi-faceted. Tackling waste will tackle CO2
The CCC report recommends a ban on biodegradable waste going to landfill by 2025. It also sets targets on a per capita basis for all non-recycled waste in order to get to net zero by 2050. They focused on an early target for bio-degradable waste because it's estimated (NB - that's another way of saying we're not at the pinnacle of the science on this one) that 70% of methane - one of the powerful greenhouse gases other than CO2 that is included into the net zero emissions target - from waste currently comes from anaerobic decomposition of bio waste in landfill.
Are you assuming that the CCC report ignores everything except CO2? It doesn't.
No, they aren't. They are about the same - per capita - as the rest of Europe. About half those of most of the gulf states and the US, about the same as China, much more - by factors of around 100 - than most African countries. 5x India's.
What caused the changes in the past? What will cause such changes in the future?
The climate models have established this. And they have tried to replicate our current climate using all of the same factors (and there are many). They can only produce the current warming trend if the anthropogenic emissions are included (that's all of them - all emissions cause by people - including particulates, methane, HFCs and other compounds, deforestation, changes to land use, soil erosion, agricultural practices and waste production). The natural factors that we know about (there's your caveat) can't account for it, but they can account for the Little Ice Age, the higher temps in Roman times, all these other historic variations that we're aware of, which is why confidence has grown that we haven't missed anything significant out.
High confidence is not certainty, of course. You can wait and see if the predictions come true before you act. That's what most governments are doing.
I'd love to swap our car for an electric one .... but they are hellish expensive. Plus, we live in a very rural area with little infrastructure to support electric cars. I'd happily use public transport .... but it simply doesn't exist locally where I am.
Electric cars are a really hard one at the moment. As you say, as an individual you can make a choice to swap to an EV. But without national investment in the infrastructure, which is currently too slow, it's pointless in large parts of the country at the moment. Then there are the other considerations - the unintended consequences that @Lyn and @Fairygirl are talking about - such as pollution from the mining of minerals used in batteries - and @steveTu's point about disposal of those batteries.
For now it would be safer, ecologically speaking, to get a bicycle. Not hugely practical though, or personally safer for most people. If the government's target of phasing out petrol and diesel by 2040 (or the CCC say 2035), is to be met, then many of those things will have to change fairly rapidly. Right now though, you may have to settle for the lowest emission non electric car you can afford and that is practical. Perhaps you'll get an electric bus service.
Gardening on the edge of Exmoor, in Devon
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
At least, now they’ve started digging up Cornwall for lithium we won’t be using poor little kids from 4 years old to mine it. 1000 mt deep holes to check for the lithium, with the farmers permission, of course , for that money they will be given permission to do exactly what they want.
Gardening on the wild, windy west side of Dartmoor.
Obviously there are loads of other major CO2 sources - we all know about vehicles (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/road-vehicles-per-1000-inhabitants-vs-gdp-per-capita?country=IND+AUS) - BUT what I'm still getting at is that it's all waste that matters. As all waste incurs MORE co2 to recycle it. The west is based on consumerism. Capitalism only works if people spend what they earn. When we don't spend the respective governments encourage us to spend. The 'model' doesn't work. And what's worse is that 'model' is western capitalism that has now been exported to the world - the whole world wants an American style fridge freezer. I worked in Nigeria in the 70's, my 'steward' had a small one roomed living quarter for him and his family - but they had a large colour TV. Traffic was so bad in Lagos then that they had the odd and even reg plate restrictions for driving cars on certain days - so the rich had two cars - but no one took any notice of the restrictions anyway.
So you buy - you put into recycling - but just look at the figures - China is manufacturing 20% of world goods - those goods are shipped - they're moved to store - they're retailed (heat and light) and then (hopefully recycled) SO the overall CO2 is vastly higher than just the manufacturing. If it's difficult for the UK to reduce its emissions, then what issues do manufacturing nations face? The insane thing is that this is the model we're being told is the way forward - ie ditch our local partners, and move to a model where we buy and sell from insane distances away.
As for whether it is just CO2 that is the cause - and you say the model has been tried against previous events and it works (paraphrased). Where is that data/model? - as I'd love to see the parameters that were fed in and the assumptions made. I haven't seen much that works to fine grained periods. I've seen stuff relation to periods of millenia, but not down to 100 ...200 years. I'm not sure how you'd be able to judge CO2 to fine tuned periods (let alone any other condition that may effect climate like magnetic fields, forestry cover, sun activity, volcanic activity..micro organism activity) - so I'd assume the models worked to wider time periods and are 'guestimates'. But if you have the references I really would be interested in how they managed to assess the whole planet, ecology and solar input in those periods.
As for Electric cars - and here's the problem with 'just do it - get it done' - I honestly don't think cars will be owned in future. Currently the 'model' is that you have a car that sits around doing nothing for 90% of the time (I used to drive a lot to and from work - and even then at 3hours per day on the road, the car was still idle for 80%+) - just for convenience. I'd lay odds that if any gov thought about this, the country would be wired for induction and driverless cars would be introduced asap. You'd simply have an app that called a car to use for a period and would be billed for use. No driver cost - so the cost per mile would become vastly cheaper than current taxi. The car would work 90% of the time rather than 10% (the 10% downtime in future would be maintenance and cleaning times) and the number of cars would reduce. But we'll go down the route of hybrid, then battery, then induction and waste all that energy in manufacture, shipping and recycling - because that's what the western model needs.
The western model is based on waste. Waste = C02. To change requires a rethink of the complete western model. AI will force that change anyway.
There are some flaws in your argument about cars. Whilst I agree that most cars are idle, most of the time, they all tend to be in use at the same times. Also, 10% of the cars in use 100% of the time, probably produces the same waste, as 100% of the cars working 105 of the time.
How can you lie there and think of England When you don't even know who's in the team
Posts
@steveTu I specifically said we are NOT at the 'pinnacle of science' so I doubt you actually read what I wrote.
What we know and what we've guessed is all out there - it's not hidden. Scientists discuss it all openly if you want to listen. Vested interests - such as Ian Plimer and Nigel Lawson - like to use that against them. Those that sell fossil fuels are rich and powerful people.
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
To be honest a lot of the science is over my head .... probably a good thing as the bits I can follow are scary enough.
But there does seem to be a consensus that the way we all live our lives isn't helping.
I agree with @punkdoc ... it's not right to just say "sod it" and carry on without a thought for others.
It is the poor nations who will be the first to bear the brunt of future climate extremes. I think many already are ...
Given this, those of us in more affluent countries, could at least try and introduce some small changes .....
Lots of small things that are easy to do will add up if enough people are involved.
Bee x
A single bee creates just one twelfth of a teaspoon of honey in her lifetime
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
I agree .... and on a personal level I have made some big changes .... but that doesn't mean I couldn't do more.
Cost, as you have pointed out, is a factor. I'd love to swap our car for an electric one .... but they are hellish expensive. Plus, we live in a very rural area with little infrastructure to support electric cars. I'd happily use public transport .... but it simply doesn't exist locally where I am.
On a broader point, I've just watched the BBC Leaders' Debate ..... not one word from either of them on climate change .... it beggars belief.
Bee x
A single bee creates just one twelfth of a teaspoon of honey in her lifetime
Are you assuming that the CCC report ignores everything except CO2? It doesn't.
No, they aren't. They are about the same - per capita - as the rest of Europe. About half those of most of the gulf states and the US, about the same as China, much more - by factors of around 100 - than most African countries. 5x India's.
The climate models have established this. And they have tried to replicate our current climate using all of the same factors (and there are many). They can only produce the current warming trend if the anthropogenic emissions are included (that's all of them - all emissions cause by people - including particulates, methane, HFCs and other compounds, deforestation, changes to land use, soil erosion, agricultural practices and waste production). The natural factors that we know about (there's your caveat) can't account for it, but they can account for the Little Ice Age, the higher temps in Roman times, all these other historic variations that we're aware of, which is why confidence has grown that we haven't missed anything significant out.
High confidence is not certainty, of course. You can wait and see if the predictions come true before you act. That's what most governments are doing.
Electric cars are a really hard one at the moment. As you say, as an individual you can make a choice to swap to an EV. But without national investment in the infrastructure, which is currently too slow, it's pointless in large parts of the country at the moment. Then there are the other considerations - the unintended consequences that @Lyn and @Fairygirl are talking about - such as pollution from the mining of minerals used in batteries - and @steveTu's point about disposal of those batteries.
For now it would be safer, ecologically speaking, to get a bicycle. Not hugely practical though, or personally safer for most people. If the government's target of phasing out petrol and diesel by 2040 (or the CCC say 2035), is to be met, then many of those things will have to change fairly rapidly. Right now though, you may have to settle for the lowest emission non electric car you can afford and that is practical. Perhaps you'll get an electric bus service.
“It's still magic even if you know how it's done.”
Whilst I agree that most cars are idle, most of the time, they all tend to be in use at the same times.
Also, 10% of the cars in use 100% of the time, probably produces the same waste, as 100% of the cars working 105 of the time.
When you don't even know who's in the team
S.Yorkshire/Derbyshire border